Saturday, June 20, 2009

WORLD FOREX: Euro Strength Persists With Rising US Stocks

)--The euro continues to stay strong against the dollar Friday, with rising U.S. stocks encouraging risk appetite.
The euro is a higher-yielding asset, which attracts investors when market sentiment is positive. The Dow Jones Industrial Average recently was up about 40 points on the day.
The dollar is also down against the yen, as it has recently outshadowed Japan's unit as the major funding currency for riskier bets.
A report that Standard & Poor's Ratings Services raised its opinion on Japan's banking sector and the country's ability to avoid a severe recession is also lending support to the yen
The euro's lead on the lower-yielding yen has waned since its release.
Late Friday morning in New York, the euro was at $1.3929 from $1.3894 late Thursday, while the dollar was at Y96.52 from Y96.62, according to EBS. The euro was at Y134.43 from Y134.22. The pound was at $1.6453 from $1.6341, while the dollar was at CHF1.0841 from CHF1.0868.
However, trading has been volatile and largely rangebound, indicative of the market's uncertainty ahead of next week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
Analysts say traders are looking for a new trading catalyst, now that it appears the global recession is ending, but growth is far off. Possible contenders next week besides the FOMC include U.S. housing data; a U.S. Treasury auctioning for $104 billion in two-, five-, and seven-year notes; and a one-year, longer-term refinancing operation by the European Central Bank.
Stronger risk appetite Friday also comes after U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said he sees some signs of stability in the economy and healing in the financial system in an interview with PBS anchorman Jim Lehrer on Thursday.
Encouraging U.S. data Thursday also helped, including a rise in the Conference Board leading indicators index and the Philadelphia Federal Reserve's manufacturing index.
"The problem is that the scope for large equity gains may be harder to find, because it is tough to keep producing positive surprises without some genuine recovery," said Stuart Bennett, a senior foreign exchange strategist at Calyon in London.
Elsewhere, the U.K. pound continues to rebound from lows this week off disappointing U.K. retail sales data. Many analysts say sterling is likely to outperform in the coming weeks, as traders saw its recent decline as an opportunity to buy.
"Technically, sterling is also the only major currency in which the five-day moving average has not slipped below the 20-day average," noted analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman.
The pound earlier advanced to an intraday high of $1.6479. Canada Morning

The Canadian dollar slipped lower against the U.S. unit by later morning after earlier rising to an intraday high.
Still, the Canadian dollar is well within recent ranges, as the currency continues its pattern of consolidation amid the lack of strong directional signals in currency markets overall at the moment.
It was unaffected by a surprise drop in Canadian retail sales in April, which fell 0.8% for the first monthly decline of 2009.
"Weakness in the Canadian dollar may be limited by the rally in oil prices," said Kathy Lien, director of currency research at GFT in New York.
Recently, the U.S. dollar was at C$1.1353 from C$1.1337 late Thursday.
Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney said Thursday that he is closely watching the moves in the currency, although this had little effect on the market.
"We note that the Bank of Canada hasn't intervened in the foreign exchange market to affect the level of the currency in almost a decade," said Sacha Tihanyi, a currency strategist at Scotia Capital. "This in itself is a notable comment and should give the currency market something to think about if the Canadian dollar once again gets too strong in the near term."

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