Friday, June 26, 2009

WORLD FOREX: Dollar Still Mixed In Narrow Trading

The dollar is higher versus the yen and down marginally against the euro midday Thursday, in a session characterized by narrow range trading and the same lack of conviction that has characterized trading in major currencies all week.
Activity has been overall less volatile than in recent days, but the dollar and other currencies remain mired in indecisive dealings following Thursday's slate of U.S. data, notably better-than-anticipated revisions to U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product figures, offset to a degree by a rise in jobless claims last week.
The final U.S. first-quarter GDP revisions now show a smaller 5.5% contraction for the economy than the 5.7% decline reported a month ago.
At the same time, however, it was reported that initial U.S. jobless claims rose 15,000 in the week ending June 20.
The U.S. data have seemingly played into a hesitant and uncertain global risk climate that so far is sustaining a tendency toward erratic and sideways trading for major currencies.
The euro has several times slipped below the $1.3900 figure only to rebound quickly, and is now engaged in a narrow dance around that figure.
The yen, meanwhile, remains down on the day after earlier falling to its lowest levels in almost a week against the dollar.
Midday Thursday, the euro was at $1.3941 from $1.3901 late Wednesday, and at Y134.17 from Y132.99. The dollar was at Y96.23 from Y95.68, according to EBS.
The U.K. pound was lower at $1.6317 from $1.6385, and the dollar was at CHF1.0956 from CHF1.0999.
Earlier Thursday, the pound was initially helped by better risk appetites, only to be knocked lower by reports of a rift between the Bank of England and the U.K. Treasury over new banking regulations.
In his testimony to Parliament Wednesday, Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said he hadn't been consulted on the Treasury's draft plans for banking sector reform.
King also sounded relatively downcast on prospects for U.K. economic recovery in earlier comments, adding to pressure on the pound.
The Swiss franc, meanwhile, remained subdued after two suspected rounds of intervention to weaken it by the Swiss National Bank over the last two days.
The apparent intervention by the Swiss National bank via the Bank for International Settlements drove the franc to three-month low CHF1.5380 against the euro, and also affected the dollar-franc pair.
The euro has since fallen back from its post-intervention highs, and currency watchers suspect that the Swiss monetary authority may have no choice but to act again, given the ineffectiveness of verbal intervention efforts to slow the franc's rise.
The Swiss currency has come under renewed upward pressure in recent weeks due to its traditional status as a safe haven in times of economic or political uncertainty.
Given a still gloomy outlook for the world economy, economists generally expect the franc to rise further.
"You can't have a strong euro [against the Swiss franc] if global growth takes a dive," said Geoffrey Yu, a currencies analyst at UBS in London. "There may come a point when this becomes too much."

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