Alternative in the forex market

The financial world is now going through some turbulent times. The global economic crisis has affected markets and economies worldwide and has rendered the financial markets unstable. The crisis has deepened recently due to negative investor sentiment. In these critical conditions most investors are pulling their money out of the falling stock markets and looking for available alternatives for investment.

Many investors have found this alternative in the forex market. Unlike other financial markets the forex market literally cannot crash. This is due to the fact that in the forex market one invests in a currency's value relatively to another currency. One is always buying and selling at the same time. Therefore one can profit when one currency weakens against another just as much as if it were strengthening against the same currency. In fact, the instability that the global crisis has introduced into the market is considered by many to be a positive thing. Volatility in the forex market, despite perhaps making it more risky, also provides greater opportunities for profit. The sharper the swings the currencies go through against each other, the more forex traders stand to profit.
And because this volatility makes the trades riskier, forex dealers also provide traders with tools to reduce their risk. Stop Loss orders are a very commonly used tool in forex traders, because they allow traders to limit the amount they are risking while their profits remain potentially limitless. One does not even have to risk the entire amount of their investment. For example, if one invests $100 on a trade they can place a stop loss order that will close the trade in case the rate of the currency pair reaches a level that leaves only $50 to take back. This allows traders to protect themselves from unpredictable market movements while simultaneously allowing them to take advantage of this same market volatility.
Despite these obvious advantages, some people still hesitate to start trading forex since they've never tried it before. This is where the eToro platform comes in. The eToro forex trading platform is a perfect place to get started in the forex market because eToro provides you with all the advantages of forex trading incorporated into a simple and visual interface. eToro's revolutionary trade visualization make it easy for forex novices to acquire trading skills in no time.
eToro's educational guides, tutorials and forums also give you access to all the forex information you can possibly require. You can then discuss this information in eToro's chats, take part in free to enter trading challenges, and take a tip from the pros using eToro's Top Traders' Insight tool. You can also practice forex trading using virtual money with real live market prices.
Now, more than ever, it's time to give forex trading a shot

British Pound Forecast Turns Bearish on Forex Sentiment

EURUSD – Euro Forecast Unclear as Forex Traders Remain Indecisive
GBPUSD – British Pound Forecast Turns Bearish on Sharp Sentiment Shifts
USDJPY – Japanese Yen Outlook Modestly Bullish Against US Dollar
USDCHF – Swiss Franc Bias Summarily Unclear Following SNB Actions
USDCAD – Canadian Dollar Forecast Remains Bullish Against US Dollar


EURUSD-An extraordinarily choppy weak of forex trading has made for indecisive crowd sentiment. After being very heavily net-short the EURUSD through earlier trade, traders are nearly neutral as only 51% of traders are short. Yesterday 53% of traders were short, and a 13.1% jump in long positions signals that sentiment is progressively turning. We typically view crowd position as a contrarian forecaster of price action, and the slow-but-steady increase in long orders has led one of our sentiment-based trading systems to go short the EURUSD. Qualitatively, we would prefer to wait for a much sharper shift in the SSI before calling for aggressive EURUSD losses.

GBPUSD-Sharp shifts in forex crowd trading sentiment suggests that the British Pound may continue to lose against the US Dollar. Traders had remained net-short the GBPUSD since June 4, and the pair rallied approximately 300 pips through that time. Yet sharp drops have actually led long positions a massive 42.9% higher than yesterday, and the SSI ratio is in net-long territory for the first time in over two weeks. Our contrarian bias to crowd positioning calls for further GBPUSD losses through upcoming trade, and one of our sentiment-based forex trading systems is accordingly short through time of writing.

USDJPY-Forex trading crowds remain heavily net-long the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen, and a contrarian view of crowd sentiment calls for further USDJPY declines. It is worth noting, however, that the one-sided nature of positioning has moderated substantially as of late. The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.53 as nearly 61% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.24 as 69% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 16.1% lower than yesterday and 9.8% stronger since last week. Short positions are 22.5% higher than yesterday and 14.8% stronger since last week. The sharp jump in short positions limits our bearish bias and we believe that the USDJPY could rally before further declines.

USDCHF-An incredible Swiss Franc decline has led forex trading crowds to flip on their long-standing long position in USDCHF, with traders hitting net-short for the first time since April. The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF currently stands at 1.06 as nearly 51% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.05 as 51% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 6.1% higher than yesterday and a sizeable 24.4% weaker since last week. Short positions are 4.8% lower than yesterday and 34.6% stronger since last week. Incredibly indecisive price action and positioning gives us a fairly neutral bias on the USDCHF—especially as the Swiss National Bank threatens further intervention on CHF strength.

USDCAD – The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at -1.12 as nearly 53% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.19 as 54% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 4.2% higher than yesterday and 14.1% weaker since last week. Short positions are 1.2% lower than yesterday and 13.4% stronger since last week. Open interest is 1.2% stronger than yesterday and 98.1% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD gains.
How do we interpret the SSI?
The FXCM SSI is based on proprietary customer flow information and is designed to recognize price trend breaks and reversals in the four most popularly traded currency pairs. The absolute number of the ratio itself represents the amount by which longs exceed shorts or vice versa. For example if the EURUSD ratio is 2.55, long customer orders exceed short orders by a ratio of 2.55 to 1. Conceptually similar to contrarian analyses using the CFTC IMM open position data or COT Report, the SSI provides an alternative approach that is both more timely and accurate in forecasting currency price movement. The SSI is a contrarian indicator that tells you how the market is weighted and where the trend may head. More long positions don't necessary suggest more confidence in the direction of the current trend. In general, when traders start having adverse movements against their position, many tend to increase the size of their position with the purpose to average down their entry price in one last attempt to recover from previous losses. However, the higher the number of short orders in a bull market the more dangerous is to take additional shorts because many of those traders who just entered the markets are also leaving their protective stop losses just above the current price action.

Forex Trading Cross Pairs Trend Analysis

INO and Quote Providers furnish quotes and market analysis without responsibility for accuracy and is accepted by the site visitor on the condition that transmission or omissions shall not be made the basis for any claim, demand or cause for action. The information and data was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinion expressed, constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options

Trade Idea: USD/JPY - Sell At 96.50

The greenback retreated after from yesterday's high of 96.58 as expected and as price is still trading well below the Ichimoku cloud area suggesting mild downside bias remains for fall to 95.40/50, however, as we still believe low has been formed at 94.88, the currency pair shall find support above 95.00/10 (where Toushin demand is reported) and then further consolidation would take place.
In view of this, we are still looking to sell dollar on recovery with stop placing above the Ichimoku cloud top (currently locating at 97.03) but as indicated above, one must take profit on such a move. If the greenback is able to rise through the Ichimoku cloud top, this would suggest the decline from 98.90 has ended at 94.88, however, only above resistance at 97.20 would confirm this and then stronger rebound to 97.36 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 98.90 to 94.88), then towards 97.90/00 would follow but strong resistance at 98.58 should cap upside

WORLD FOREX: Dollar Still Mixed In Narrow Trading

The dollar is higher versus the yen and down marginally against the euro midday Thursday, in a session characterized by narrow range trading and the same lack of conviction that has characterized trading in major currencies all week.
Activity has been overall less volatile than in recent days, but the dollar and other currencies remain mired in indecisive dealings following Thursday's slate of U.S. data, notably better-than-anticipated revisions to U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product figures, offset to a degree by a rise in jobless claims last week.
The final U.S. first-quarter GDP revisions now show a smaller 5.5% contraction for the economy than the 5.7% decline reported a month ago.
At the same time, however, it was reported that initial U.S. jobless claims rose 15,000 in the week ending June 20.
The U.S. data have seemingly played into a hesitant and uncertain global risk climate that so far is sustaining a tendency toward erratic and sideways trading for major currencies.
The euro has several times slipped below the $1.3900 figure only to rebound quickly, and is now engaged in a narrow dance around that figure.
The yen, meanwhile, remains down on the day after earlier falling to its lowest levels in almost a week against the dollar.
Midday Thursday, the euro was at $1.3941 from $1.3901 late Wednesday, and at Y134.17 from Y132.99. The dollar was at Y96.23 from Y95.68, according to EBS.
The U.K. pound was lower at $1.6317 from $1.6385, and the dollar was at CHF1.0956 from CHF1.0999.
Earlier Thursday, the pound was initially helped by better risk appetites, only to be knocked lower by reports of a rift between the Bank of England and the U.K. Treasury over new banking regulations.
In his testimony to Parliament Wednesday, Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said he hadn't been consulted on the Treasury's draft plans for banking sector reform.
King also sounded relatively downcast on prospects for U.K. economic recovery in earlier comments, adding to pressure on the pound.
The Swiss franc, meanwhile, remained subdued after two suspected rounds of intervention to weaken it by the Swiss National Bank over the last two days.
The apparent intervention by the Swiss National bank via the Bank for International Settlements drove the franc to three-month low CHF1.5380 against the euro, and also affected the dollar-franc pair.
The euro has since fallen back from its post-intervention highs, and currency watchers suspect that the Swiss monetary authority may have no choice but to act again, given the ineffectiveness of verbal intervention efforts to slow the franc's rise.
The Swiss currency has come under renewed upward pressure in recent weeks due to its traditional status as a safe haven in times of economic or political uncertainty.
Given a still gloomy outlook for the world economy, economists generally expect the franc to rise further.
"You can't have a strong euro [against the Swiss franc] if global growth takes a dive," said Geoffrey Yu, a currencies analyst at UBS in London. "There may come a point when this becomes too much."

WORLD FOREX: Euro Strength Persists With Rising US Stocks

)--The euro continues to stay strong against the dollar Friday, with rising U.S. stocks encouraging risk appetite.
The euro is a higher-yielding asset, which attracts investors when market sentiment is positive. The Dow Jones Industrial Average recently was up about 40 points on the day.
The dollar is also down against the yen, as it has recently outshadowed Japan's unit as the major funding currency for riskier bets.
A report that Standard & Poor's Ratings Services raised its opinion on Japan's banking sector and the country's ability to avoid a severe recession is also lending support to the yen
The euro's lead on the lower-yielding yen has waned since its release.
Late Friday morning in New York, the euro was at $1.3929 from $1.3894 late Thursday, while the dollar was at Y96.52 from Y96.62, according to EBS. The euro was at Y134.43 from Y134.22. The pound was at $1.6453 from $1.6341, while the dollar was at CHF1.0841 from CHF1.0868.
However, trading has been volatile and largely rangebound, indicative of the market's uncertainty ahead of next week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
Analysts say traders are looking for a new trading catalyst, now that it appears the global recession is ending, but growth is far off. Possible contenders next week besides the FOMC include U.S. housing data; a U.S. Treasury auctioning for $104 billion in two-, five-, and seven-year notes; and a one-year, longer-term refinancing operation by the European Central Bank.
Stronger risk appetite Friday also comes after U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said he sees some signs of stability in the economy and healing in the financial system in an interview with PBS anchorman Jim Lehrer on Thursday.
Encouraging U.S. data Thursday also helped, including a rise in the Conference Board leading indicators index and the Philadelphia Federal Reserve's manufacturing index.
"The problem is that the scope for large equity gains may be harder to find, because it is tough to keep producing positive surprises without some genuine recovery," said Stuart Bennett, a senior foreign exchange strategist at Calyon in London.
Elsewhere, the U.K. pound continues to rebound from lows this week off disappointing U.K. retail sales data. Many analysts say sterling is likely to outperform in the coming weeks, as traders saw its recent decline as an opportunity to buy.
"Technically, sterling is also the only major currency in which the five-day moving average has not slipped below the 20-day average," noted analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman.
The pound earlier advanced to an intraday high of $1.6479. Canada Morning

The Canadian dollar slipped lower against the U.S. unit by later morning after earlier rising to an intraday high.
Still, the Canadian dollar is well within recent ranges, as the currency continues its pattern of consolidation amid the lack of strong directional signals in currency markets overall at the moment.
It was unaffected by a surprise drop in Canadian retail sales in April, which fell 0.8% for the first monthly decline of 2009.
"Weakness in the Canadian dollar may be limited by the rally in oil prices," said Kathy Lien, director of currency research at GFT in New York.
Recently, the U.S. dollar was at C$1.1353 from C$1.1337 late Thursday.
Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney said Thursday that he is closely watching the moves in the currency, although this had little effect on the market.
"We note that the Bank of Canada hasn't intervened in the foreign exchange market to affect the level of the currency in almost a decade," said Sacha Tihanyi, a currency strategist at Scotia Capital. "This in itself is a notable comment and should give the currency market something to think about if the Canadian dollar once again gets too strong in the near term."

Live Forex Rate

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

Forex Auto Traders: A Scam or A Gold Mine

The rapid speed at which the Forex market is growing has many consequences, some better than others. On the one hand, there are endless resources online for learning and becoming an expert on the largest most lucrative market in the world. There are also many more people around the world who are spending their days and nights testing out the waters of Forex trading. Other positive outcomes of Forex growth are more Forex brokers and services from which a trader can choose. However, as always, the growing popularity of Forex brings with it some problems that require caution on the part of the Forex trader. One of the biggest issues in today’s online Forex community, as well as the general Web community, is spam. When it comes to surfing the web and encountering annoying popups or receiving bogus emails, as annoying as these occurrences are, 99% of the time, they are annoying and nothing more. Of course, there is the occasional online scam, but with the widespread use of online communication such as email, messenger, and social media, most people know to stay away from those types of things. When it comes to Forex spam, however, it is a totally different ball game. There is money to be lost as a result of the different types of Forex spam that traders encounter on a daily basis. The most common type of Forex spam is advertisements for Forex robots or auto trading systems. The big question regarding these auto traders is “Are they all bad? Are there some legitimate ones and are they worth trying”? The answer is that they are NOT all spam and that there is a LOT of money to be made by using auto traders, but for that, you need to do your homework. First, let’s try to understand why one would use an auto trader and what are its advantages? As, we have written before, one of the biggest downfalls of the Forex trader is emotion. While being in touch with your emotion will get you far in life, it will set you back in your Forex trading. It is important to set yourself a trading strategy and stick to it, NO MATTER WHAT. This is harder than it sounds. Just imagine you define your trading technique, and for days, all you see are losses. Are you telling me your emotion would not kick in? Alternatively, if you are seeing constant profits, would you not be swayed by greed to trade more money? This does not make you a bad trader, this makes you human. For this reason exactly, it is a smart tactic to remove the human factor from your trading. The way to do this is to automate your transactions. There are many auto traders out there that perform technical analysis and decide when to open or close trades, while its primary “concern” is to keep you on the winning side. Unlike Forex brokers, who occasionally profit from your loss, auto traders work for you and not against you. Another reason to use auto traders is that they can trader 24 hours a day, even when you are not near your computer. Imagine, you can be at a friend’s party and find out that you just made a huge profit, it’s like the feeling you get when finding money in your pocket multiplied by 100. Let the auto trader do all the work while you sit back and enjoy the fruit. Finally, auto traders can be a great and effective trading tool for any Forex trader, no matter how experienced they are. However, it offers a huge advantage to new traders. They do not need to know the market, how to read the charts, or what a certain currency will do in the market today. Essentially, you do not need to know anything about the Forex market, and you can become a very successful Forex trader. Now that we have established that Forex auto traders can be a wonderful thing for traders, how do you choose one? There is no one way to decide which auto trader to use. An important and crucial tip in ensuring your auto trader is legitimate and will bring you profits and not losses, is course to read reviews. You can read professional reviews as well as user reviews, but make sure these are objective opinions and not written by the people who are behind the system that is being reviewed. Another way to take precautions before buying a Forex auto trader is to look for a few signs when examining the company at hand. Here are a few questions you should ask yourself when choosing a Forex auto trader:1: Do they offer a money back guarantee? Most reputable auto traders are so confident that their product works, they will offer a money back guarantee ranging anywhere from 30-60 days after the purchase. This means if you buy the software and realize soon after, it is not for you, you can receive a complete refund. This is a must when choosing a Forex auto trader. If you have this guarantee, it lowers the risk of a scam to virtually zero. 2: Do they offer a free demo? Similar to choosing a Forex broker, one of the first things you need to do when choosing an auto trader is test it out. When buying a car, would you not test drive it first? Make sure to do the same in your Forex trading. Test out the software before purchasing it. However, it is also important to take into account that demo accounts are not always 100% accurate, so take the results of the demo with a grain of salt. 3: Does their website annoy you? Lastly, this is a universal rule when it comes to buying anything online. Go to the vendor’s site and look out for any popups/illegal activity/inappropriate advertisements. This is not full proof but it is a precaution worth taking. 9 out of 10 times, a site that displays annoying and shady popups will offer a questionable service as well. If this vendor associates itself with shady businesses such as the online pornography industry, you should think twice before investing your money in such a company. As I said, this not across the board, there are some very legitimate online businesses that feel that a popup covering your entire monitor is effective marketing. They are wrong, but that does not make them a scam. The bottom line is that online scammers do not choose to scam in areas that are not full of potential. Nobody is going to click on a spam advertisement for a computer from 1981, scammers know what they are doing and they choose topics that will draw attention. Forex auto trading has endless potential when it comes to making you steady and significant profits, but just like anything else online, you must proceed with precaution.

Forex Trading Secrets: How to Profit from the G8

From the beginning of the week until 06:00pm GMT Thursday, virtually every currency was rising against the U.S. dollar. Demand for riskier, higher yielding currencies like the AUD and NZD, along with concerns about growing US debt and future inflation, drove the USD lower despite better than expected news on retail sales and unemployment. Even the lower yielding euro and British pound were in strong multi-day up trends against the USD. Crude oil continued its surge upwards (over 100% since the beginning of the year) as the weakening dollar (in which oil is priced) and lower than expected inventories continued to feed its uptrend.
Then around 06:00pm GMT the dollar got stronger. Why?

Beijing: The Dollar Love-Fest, Part I

Think back to the beginning of June, when Treasury Secretary Geithner made his first trip to China. The Chinese have been one of the principal buyers of US bonds for many years. Thus a very large portion of their cash reserves are in U.S. dollars. Given the rapidly plummeting value of these holdings due to exploding levels of U.S. debt and money supply, they were not pleased, and no doubt wanted to, ahem, politely but firmly express their concern. In order to set the proper mood, in the days prior to the meeting, they publicly suggested replacing the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. No doubt poor Tim got an earful, and perhaps learned a few new Chinese expressions beyond polite greetings and goodbyes (though perhaps common to Chinese translators of Gangsta Rap).
Not surprisingly, then, Geithner proclaimed that the U.S. would support the dollar. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke chimed in a few days later with similar words, though he did backtrack ever so slightly by mentioning something about the banks still possibly needing some help. Reuter’s mentioned that Chinese and other unnamed “Asian monetary officials” (happy to play their part in covering their own assets) would continue to buy Treasury bonds even if the U.S. lost its AAA rating.
Given at least these token signs of support, the USD strengthened for a few days, as the below hourly chart of the EUR/USD shows in the early days of June.

Italy: The Dollar-Love Fest, Part II

Now, here we are mid June. With the dollars’ “Obama-nable” fundamentals of rapidly expanding debt and supply still in place with no sign of abating, and the talk of early June a distant memory, the USD has spend this past week mostly losing value against other currencies.
For example, look at this hourly chart (click to enlarge) of the EUR/USD. From June 8th, the EUR had been in a steady up trend against the USD, which broke around 6 p.m. GMT. As of this writing it has fallen and broken through 4 layers of support:
1.4089: Its 200 hour simple moving average
1.4033: A major hourly resistance level at which no less than THREE KINDS OF RESISTANCE CONVERGE:
its 50 hour simple moving average,
it's lower rising channel line,
AND its lower Bollinger Band.

African Central Bank May Intervene In Forex Market To Influence Rand: Reports

The South African Reserve Bank might counter "extreme exchange rate movements" in the rand, the central bank Governor Tito Mboweni reportedly said in a conference over the weekend. However, the central bank would not set a target for the rand, the governor said.Talks of intervention signals a shift in the central bank's earlier stance that it would not interfere in the foreign exchange market to influence the rand's value, according to the BusinessDay newspaper. Confirming the change in his thinking, Mboweni said, "Leaning against the wind is actually not a bad policy approach," Bloomberg reported.

Forex Trading and Hot Stock Alerts: ZZ, AIB, ZQK, CLS, HEPH and CVM

FX or Forex trading refers to trading on the Foreign Exchange Market. This is the market where foreign currency is traded. As cash has the most liquidity, this market is the most liquid of the financial markets in the world. Trading on this market occurs where one party agrees to purchase a specific quantity of currency in exchange for another currency. There are many big players on this market with large banks, corporations' governments and other institutions trading currency. The average daily volume on this market is valued in the trillions of dollars and growing, especially with the market being open 24 hours a day during business days. Forex trading is an over the counter (OTC) market meaning that the brokers negotiate with each other directly. Each trade is done for at least 100,000 units called a 'lot'.
If you are interested in stocks that have the potential to grow 100-1000% in a matter of days, you may want to consider Penny Stocks. At PennyStockChaser, we want to provide investors with some general guidance in penny stocks trading. Here is one some of PennyStockChaser's recent alerts that exploded: Intelligent Living Corp. (OTCBB:ILVC) share jumped over 150% to $0.235 this morning after the company announced today that sales teams are selling security and energy saving automation systems in Turkey and the Middle East.

Gold, Silver, and Crude Oil Trading Now Possible From a Single Online Forex Trading Platform

In line with growing customer demand and an increased market trend towards tradable spot commodities, is proud to offer single online forex trading platform for trading in commodities like Gold, Silver and Crude Oil. The decision to offer single online forex trading platform for Gold, Silver and Oil has been taken by STIFX to let its global customers enjoy the benefit of fx trading without any additional software downloads or fees. Over the past few years, the interest in the oil and gold online trading has become increasingly famous and involves all types of traders and speculators big or small. Traders all know that Gold, Silver or Oil trading is not an easy business. The demand to share and keep themselves update with price and date related to these commodities is on rise and plays a very important role in getting success. Addressing to meet this growing demand, single online forex trading platform can be an ideal opportunity for all type of traders to perform gold, silver and oil trading more effectively. This step is likely to show a better way of trading of Gold, Silver and Crude Oil through electronic means and enhanced price transparency in the global market. Combining the science of finance and the art of innovative technology, STIFX’s online fx trading single platform can help investor or trader: • View real-time quotes, charts and graphs with all of the technical indicators • Get mini statements detailing about the profit & loss summaries • Get real-time news & analysis of data pre and post release. • Have live audio rates of major currency pairs and direct chat interaction with dealers • Easily check their order or account status at any time Commodities have been available to investors for decades, but in past few years with the growth in concepts like online trading their popularity has also grown rapidly. Commodities like Gold, Silver and Oil have performed very well and evolved rapidly due to constant changes in supply and demand chain, as well as in global stock levels. As a result, we expect more price volatility for the foreseeable future. Thus providing a single online forex trading platform for these commodities can be considered as a vital decision to help traders and investors manage price exposure in this sort of market

Tradency scores a deal with ODL to offer automatic Forex trading

High five to Tradency for scoring a deal with ODL - one of the largest UK brokers and to ODL itself for understanding the needs of newbie Forex traders and capitalizing on them. Another High Five to ODL is for offering a drop-dead simple registration process - in less than a minute I was inside the demo account and managed to select AND activate a trading strategy on EURUSD called Base-Hit with a promised 91.92% win ratio without reading any instructions. Let’s wait to see how it performs today

Intra-day forex trading signal by AceTrader : USD/JPY

Intra-day forex trading signal by AceTrader : USD/JPY USD/JPY OUTLOOK - 98.43 Last Update At 08 Jun 2009 01:25 GMT Dlr's retreat after being capped below Friday's NY high at 98.90 suggests further consolidation below there is in store n pullback to 98.10/20 can not be ruled b4 prospect of another rise, however, abv said res needed to extend upmove to 99.20/25. Still favour buying on dips, stop as indicated, below wud risk stronger retrace. to 97.80/85... Range Forecast 98.25 / 98.60 Resistance/Support R: 98.90/99.22/99.80 S: 98.05/97.46/96.98

Forex - USD Rallies Back on Stronger US data

There has been a stark change in the markets’ sentiment regarding the USD since last Thursday. The obvious question is: is this shift a complete reversal or just a temporary correction before a continued USD weakness? The markets reaction to the large upside surprise to private sector payroll employment (improvements across all sectors) seems to us slightly misguided. The USD initially sold off but then rallied back as NFP printed at -345k vs. -520k exp (although the official unemployment rate edged disturbingly higher). The stronger data in a critical component of the US recovery story has increased speculation that the Fed will begin unwinding of liquidity measures, through tighter monetary policy, by years end. We are unconvinced that the recovery will be fully entrenched or that inflation levels will become (in that period) so worrying that the Fed would be willing to take this action. However, with Trichet clearly stating that the ECB would be looking to begin draining liquidity soon, markets have now begun to think about a world without central bank super liquidity (anecdotal support materialized and provided yields in the US Treasuries with firm footing, which were pushed higher after the NFP number). On a side note, over the weekend Chancellor Merkel's party did very well in the European elections and we expect her criticism of major central banks, before German elections in the fall, to increase. In addition, the UK's labour Party faired poorly. However, Prime Minister Gordon Brown and Chancellor Alastair Daring have been able to hold on, ensuring some level of continuity for the near term. The Sterling has been under significant selling pressure as of late and its future depends on domestic political developments, as much as macro trading themes. The GBP corrective setback from 1.6660 is now pressuring the 1.5880 key support. A break will then have traders focused on 1.5519 (38% fib). And as a final note, ECB and European Union are both watching the situation in Latvia closely as the devaluation debate continues. While Sweden should have the largest direct exposure, and EU countries have attempted to differentiate their own economies there is still a significant concern over contagion risk in the region. With the European Parliament elections out of the way (weakened centre-right coalition) Latvia will need to deliver its fiscal austerity measures for the IMF / EU. In the short term it should calm Sweden’s nerves (expect continued pressure on the SEK) but unlikely to end speculation surrounding the potential exit strategies from the current peg.

FOREX-Dollar holds ground after jump, ECB and BOE in focus

* Dollar holds gains made Wed after data, cbanker comments
* Cross/yen off lows after previous day's falls
* Outcome of ECB, BOE meetings in focus
TOKYO, June 4 (Reuters) - The dollar mostly held its ground on Thursday after a big reversal from 2009 lows on comments from Asian monetary officials and weaker-than-expected U.S. data that took the wind out of a risk rally in other major currencies.
Investors had a reality check on Wednesday when data showed the vast U.S. service sector contracted for the eighth straight month in May and employers axed 532,000 private-sector jobs, undermining optimism about an economic turnaround. [ID:nN03345672]
Comments from several Asian monetary officials to Reuters that Asian central banks would keep buying Treasuries even if the U.S.' credit rating were to be cut also boosted the dollar.
The greenback has come under pressure in the past few weeks partly because the market is nervous about the U.S.' ability to finance its growing debt issuance. [ID:nSP412010]
The dollar rebounded more than 1 percent from 2009 lows against a basket of six currencies .DXY on Wednesday although the move had stalled by Thursday as investors awaited policy decisions at the European Central Bank and the Bank of England

3 forex trading strategies for every trader

In this article I have outlined in brief some of the forex trading strategies that you can try. These strategies are suitable for the experienced traders as well as the beginners who wish to trade on the various forex markets and are in search of good effective strategies. The trading strategies can also be used on any size of trading account which is the mini, standard or micro.

The strategies that I have outlined below are proven trading strategies and they have certainly achieved great results for several traders and for sure they will work for you too. You should also bear in mind that with each and every forex strategy you adopt you should consider making great use of risk management at all times.

As a trader you may be faced with great difficulties on how best you can select a forex strategy. First and foremost you should choose are strategy that suits you.

Forex Scalping System

This is one of the easiest strategies to follow and it focuses mainly on pinpointing resistance and support points, Fibonacci retracements can be used for these. If a price reaches a major support point you would have to invest big but if it reaches a major resistance point then you would have to invest less. Make use of small profit takes and tight stops. This will enable you to get high dividends through out the day and on each every trade. A small bounce usually occurs on major resistance and support points. Making use of a broker with small spreads would be a noble idea so that it does not take up your profits that much. This is a great strategy that you can use and you are able to try this by opening a demo account first.

Forex Hedging Strategy

The most common hedging strategy is the frequent selling CHF/JPY and buying GBP/JPY. The major target is to obtain great profits from the price movements. A GBP/JPY will earn great interest due to the interest rate differentials and you would also have to pay short for CHF/JPY because its interest is very low than compared to the GBP/JPY.

This strategy is considered to be of a very low risk because the currency pairs CHF/JPY would not go in the opposite direction tremendously and how ever this is a common carry trade used by several traders. It is a good strategy that will certainly give you a favorable dividend.

Forex Arbitrage System

A good arbitrage exists between spread betting and currency trading brokers. This situation arises due to the fact that when you make use of spread betting you will have the option of having pips prices in different currencies. For example you may have a long position on the GBP/USD at which your pips are priced at £7 per each point. In order for you to hedge you would make a short position for the GBP/USD making use of the standard lot.

Before you decide to adopt a trading strategy or system that you will use you should make sure that the system or strategy is very simple to use. Do not make use of a strategy that is complex for you to use and a good strategy or system is the one which takes you a few hours or a day to understand and master. There are several strategies available and these can be used to drive your wealth to great prospects.

If you are a beginner to forex market trading you should first of all try several strategies making use of a demo account so that you are able to gain experience and then you may proceed to open a real account and trade.

The next step you should consider is margin buying. This is the most common strategy that is used by several traders. Margin buying is when you trade using borrowed money. Although at times it can be very risk but if used with a good strategy and system you will eventually benefit more from money that was not yours. You simply take all the profits and return the money you borrowed.

Forex trading is very simple and you are guaranteed to make a substantial income if you are to trade on a daily base. Forex trading as a profession can be very rewarding.

Forex Market Update: Euro Pares Losses From the Drop in German PPI

EUR/USD traded up to 1.3640 after aggressive Middle Eastern buying interest. Weak trailing stops were filled on the way up and more are noted at 1.3655 and 1.3670 ahead of good standing offers at 1.3700. Larger stop loss interest is noted at 1.3740-45, which is expected to see heavy interest if it come in to play, although this is likely to be dependent on risk appetite. The euro has shaken off the decline in German PPI, which was much weaker than expected at -1.4% m/m and -2.7% y/y. The focus is likely to remain on equity markets, which are little changed on the session as the market digest economic recovery prospects. Option players indicate large outstanding expiries at 1.3600, which could draw an influence if the topside holds

Bank of England Votes Unanimously to Hold Interest Rate at 0.50%, Increase Asset Purchase by GBP 50B
The BoE MPC voted unanimously in favor of raising the asset purchase target by GBP 50 bln to 125 bln at this month's monetary policy meeting, the minutes from the May meeting showed. However, as expected there was a range of views about the amount by which to increase asset purchasing. Though all members favored raising the target, as we had expected, views ranged between 50 bln and 75 bln, but those favoring a larger increase saw no pressing need for it. The MPC noted that the Asset Purchase Scheme will be revised every month and the purchase target could be raised or lowered. (So far the MPC has been given a 150 bln ceiling by the Treasury, however.) Arguments for not extending the program included uncertainty of impact, signs of economic recovery, monetary stimulus already in the pipeline and the difficulty for the MPC to judge when to withdraw. The MPC also noted that recent surveys show that economic decline is moderating but that they give little insight into the robustness of recovery. The MPC was unanimously in favor of holding the repo rate steady at 0.5%.

inter-bank lending rates reduce

Lending among banks appears to be getting better with the Nigerian Inter-Bank Offer Rate (NIBOR) reducing significantly at the money market.But the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) continues to stretch its foreign exchange (forex) resources in an effort to meet demand.Available data at the inter-bank market showed that the 7-day NIBOR dipped to close the week at 13.25 percent, a 10-basis-point decrease from the previous week’s figure of 14.79 percent. Also, the 90-day NIBOR dipped to close the week at 16.40 percent, a five- basis-point decrease from the previous week’s figure of 17.33 percent.FSDH Weekly is confident that there will be increased activity at the government securities market this week, and therefore expects the inter-bank rates to moderate at the current levels. Meanwhile, maturities worth about N25 billion are expected to hit the system next week, even as the Federal Account Allocation Committee is likely to meet towards the end of next week.But in spite of the apex bank’s efforts to meet forex demand last week, the value of the naira slipped. It depreciated by 11 kobo and N2.00 to close the week at N146.01/$1 and N180.00/US$1, compared with the previous week’s figures of N145.90/$1 and N178.00/$1 in the official and parallel markets respectively. As of the time of this report, the inter-bank market remained closed by the CBN.However, auctions held at the Retail Dutch Auction System (RDAS) between Monday and Wednesday last week indicate that the CBN has spent much more than it earlier intended. At the auction held on Monday, May 04, 2009, the CBN offered $100 million, while it sold $114.05 million. The sale was 14.05 percent higher than what it offered. On Tuesday, May 05, 2009, the CBN offered $100 million, while it sold $131.59 million- the sale was higher than what it offered by 31.59 percent. On Wednesday, May 06, 2009, the CBN offered a total of $100 million, while it sold $149.50 million- the sale was higher than what it offered by 49.50 percent. In all, this week a total of $300 million was offered; while the apex bank sold $395.14 million- the sale was 31.71 percent higher than what it offered.The FSDH is confident that at the foreign exchange market, foreign exchange rate would remain relatively stable, as the CBN tries to meet all genuine demands and maintain the band at +/- three percent.According to the FSDH Weekly, as at the time of this report, there was no information about Treasury Bill (TB) transactions from the CBN. However, during the 91-day TB auction as at last week Thursday, April 30, 2009, the CBN did not offer nor allot any bill, but N10.11bn worth of TB was repaid.Also, at the 182-day TB auction last week, a total of N10 billion worth of TB was repaid.In all, last week there was total inflow of N20.11 billion from the primary segment of the money market.Also last week, at the secondary segment of the government securities market, a total of N222.05 billion worth of Repo & Expanded Discount Window (EDW) was injected, while N133.71 billion was withdrawn. This led to injection of about N88.33 billion from this segment of the market. The tenor days on the OMO Repo and EDW ranged from three days to 120 days, while the discount rate on the bills ranged between 8.25 percent and 12.75 percent.

China says forex reserves rise 16%

China's central bank says its foreign exchange reserves rose 16 per cent year-on-year to $US1.954 trillion by the end of March.

In a notice on its website on Saturday the bank said reserves increased by $US7.7 billion in the first quarter, $US146.2 billion lower than the same period last year.

Analysts believe China holds up to 70 per cent of its foreign reserves in US dollar-denominated assets, including Treasury securities.

In March, the reserves increased by $US41.7 billion, an increase of $US6.7 billion more than at the same period last year.

FOREX-U.S. dollar, yen slide as risk appetite rises

The U.S. dollar and yen fell on Friday as increasing risk appetite sparked by better-than-expected U.S. economic data pared demand for both currencies as a refuge against the global slowdown.

The dollar fell for a fourth straight session versus the euro, while the yen dropped to a two-week low against both the euro and dollar, with volumes thin given the May Day holiday in Europe. Higher-yielding currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars were some of the biggest movers on the day, moving in tandem with higher U.S. stocks.

New data on Friday reinforced the view that the worst of the recession may have passed, making investors more comfortable with risk-taking. Reports showed U.S. consumers felt more upbeat about the economy in April while a key gauge of manufacturing suggested the sector was gradually emerging out of a prolonged recession.

Risk appetite is definitely coming back and the data this morning was phenomenal, said Melvin Harris, a market analyst at Advanced Currency Markets in New York.

The reports are supportive factors to truly build the case that while things are not completely better yet, we are moving in a positive direction. Economic fundamentals will become more important in the next couple of months.

The numbers were consistent with the Federal Reserve's less bleak outlook on the U.S. economy issued on Wednesday.YEN FALLS; AUSSIE, KIWI RISE

FOREX-Dollar, yen fall; demand for risky assets grows

The dollar and the yen fell broadly on Thursday as growing hopes that the global economy may be over the worst of the recession diminished the attraction of those currencies perceived to be safer assets.
Investors took heart from Wednesday's Federal Reserve statement pointing to an improved U.S. economic outlook This fuelled strong gains in equities, with European shares up 2 percent, which boosted the euro while the Australian dollar -- which is typically seen as higher risk -- jumped, hitting a six-month high against its U.S. counterpart.
The optimistic tone of the Fed's statement offset earlier news that the U.S. economy contracted sharply in the first quarter, keeping intact a broad improvement in sentiment and pushing the dollar to a 3-week low against a currency basket.
"Markets are still very much in a risk appetite mood and this looks set to continue for the time being," SEB currency strategist in Stockholm Carl Hammer said.
The dollar came off earlier lows later in the session, however, as traders said some investors opted to buy the currency at more attractive levels, particularly given that several risk factors continue to lurk in the background.
The risk of the outbreak hampering the global economic recovery increased as the World Health Organisation said a pandemic was imminent while reports emerged of an imminent bankruptcy filing by Chrysler.
Market players also remain wary ahead of Monday's release of the U.S. stress tests on banks. At 1206 GMT, the dollar index .DXY, which tracks the U.S. currency's performance against the nation's biggest trading partners, fell 0.2 percent to 84.455, having fallen as low as 83.885, its lowest since early April.
The euro gained 0.1 percent against the U.S. currency to $1.3280 , though it was off an earlier two-week high of around $1.3384

US Money Laundering Case Halts Venezuela Forex Trading

A money laundering case has prompted U.S. authorities to freeze an umbrella account used by dozens of brokers in Venezuela for currency trading, bringing the South American nation's so-called parallel currency market to a halt.

The seizure in unofficial currency market trading threatens to badly hamstring Venezuela's import-dependent economy.

The U .S. District Court of Massachusetts has charged one of the managers of the account for allegedly wire transferring $900,000 in proceeds from "dealing in a controlled substance," according to court documents.

Prosecutors are charging Rama K. Vyasulu, an apparent representative for the umbrella account that Venezuelan traders said was managed by Florida-based Rosemont P. Corporation, also known as Rosemont Money Services.

A Rosemont presentation from last November lists Vyasulu as an executive director formerly employed at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta as a regulatory officer in charge of several Latin American countries.

Vyasulu was employed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta in its Miami branch from March to August 1997 as a foreign bank analyst, essentially examining performance indicators of foreign banks doing business in the U.S., a spokesman for the bank confirmed.

Rosemont's stated purpose is to help foreign financial institutions carry out wire transfers in the U.S. and meet government regulations. According to its November presentation, Rosemont handled $10 billion in transactions last year.

Phone calls to Rosemont's Florida office for comment went unanswered.

Traders said the frozen account was held at Bank of America Corp. (BAC). A spokeswoman for the bank declined to comment, citing client confidentiality. A U.S. Treasury spokesman Thursday also declined to comment.

As a result of the freezing of the account, traders haven't been able to settle some deals. They use U.S. accounts to receive and transfer dollars in exchange for bolivars in Venezuela.

Traders speculated that a minimum of $100 million could be tied up in the frozen account.

Companies and individuals in Venezuela that can't buy dollars at the official, pegged exchange rate of VEB2.15 turn to the parallel market.

Speculation has been running rife for months that state-oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA, or PdVSA, has been breaking the law by selling part of its oil revenue in the parallel market instead of through the central bank, as it's required to do. A PdVSA spokesperson dismissed the speculation and said the company wasn't selling dollars.

In the past Venezuela's Finance Ministry sold structured notes made up of sovereign debt from other nations in the parallel market, providing an influx of dollars to traders and keeping a lid on the unofficial exchange rate, which retailers usually use to set prices.

A Finance Ministry spokesman Friday declined to comment on the frozen account.

The parallel market was so thin on Friday that traders said they couldn't even quote a price. On Thursday, a dollar fetched around VEB6.2 a dollar, almost three times the official rate.

The parallel market operates through bond swaps, where Venezuelan bonds denominated in bolivars are exchanged for dollar-denominated Venezuelan bonds. After the exchange, the purchaser obtains U.S. currency or bolivars from the sale of the bond.

A prolonged halt in dollar-trading could have devastating effects on Venezuela's economy as companies increasingly depend on the parallel market to pay for imports.

As the price of oil collapsed in recent months, the government has curbed the sale of dollars at the official exchange rate, forcing more companies and individuals to go to the parallel market.

Some traders feared that the case against Rosemont was an indication of tighter oversight of their operations in the U.S., which would force them to adjust their settlement mechanisms.

"No one truly understands what the source of the dollars is in these transactions. Most of the money is coming from offshore accounts," said Brian Stoeckert, who runs an anti-money laundering consulting firm. "There's a possibility that the parallel-market could come under closer scrutiny" by U.S. regulators, he said.

Venezuela's capital account in 2008 showed a $26 billion deficit, signaling that Venezuelans continue to sidestep strict currency controls to get their money out of the country.

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The Benefits Of Using A Money Management System For Forex Trading

Wise investors use a system to learn when to buy or sell and the amount of money at risk at any particular time. This is their money management program. An electronic, automated Forex trading system is an ideal money management program for anyone involved with the Forex marketplace.

Some people might be skeptical about an automated Forex trading system - after all, don’t such systems try to “time the market”, and isn’t that a no-no for investors? But experienced Forex traders know that good automated software to help them with trading can be set up with their chosen parameters so that no market timing is involved. Instead, the system uses the stop-loss, retracement, and other real-time parameters and couples those stipulations with mathematical algorithms such as often-used Fibonacci formula in order to automatically place buy or sell orders on behalf of the trader.

Due to the fact that there is almost always a currency market that is open at any given time in any area of the world, the Forex markets are open 24 hours daily, 7 days weekly. You do not have to concern yourself with market timing attempts when you have an automated Forex trading system acting as your money management program. It is the ideal software, since it never sleeps.

Knowledgeable individuals may wonder why use a money management program. Perhaps they think that investing is a gamble ranking about the same as visiting a casino. They may reason why you would use such a program if it makes no difference at all.

These people have of course got it all wrong. There is certainly uncertainty and chance involved in the market, but knowing how the market works and being able to manage your Forex trades and your finances can make a huge difference to your odds of success in the market. There are trends which can be seen in the market if you step back and take a look at the larger picture. Automated Forex trading systems use these patterns to make their market analysis and model future market behavior based on these historical patterns and proven mathematical models.

While there are of course plenty of professional gamblers who have made millions. There is no one who is lucky enough to make that many good decisions in a game of chance. While there is uncertainty in gambling just as there is investment, there is a genuine science to both - and in both, there are larger patterns which can be seen and exploited to ensure a greater chance of success.

Forex trading should also be approached in a systematic manner; this is the way to make a success of your trades. Just ask those who have been successful in the Forex market; they didn’t guess their way to wealth, they used a system.

And turning both good and bad luck to your long term advantage and profit is entirely possible with a sound money management program - and that, once again, can be enhanced by an automated Forex trading system.

US firm to deliver bargain tracker funds

The launch of a US investment group in the UK may herald the dawn of cheaper fund management charges for British investors

The ultra low-cost US mutual fund group Vanguard has announced its intentions to launch into the already crowded UK market.
It gained fame for bargain tracker funds with fees that are a fraction of the cost of traditional rivals.
The group, which manages more than $1.1 trillion in assets and serves more than 23m individual and institutional accounts worldwide, has made a name for itself across the Atlantic for selling low-cost funds.
Investors reportedly poured some $84bn of new money into Vanguard products in 2008.
Subject to regulatory approval, Vanguard is expected to launch a range of index tracking funds later in 2009.
Martin Bamford, of Informed Choice, an independent financial adviser, says: 'This has the potential to be a very healthy addition to the UK fund management industry from a competition perspective.
'If investors can get cheaper access to tracker funds, then that is a good thing.'
Presently Vanguard offers some 200 funds to US investors.
As well as running actively managed funds, the group has portfolios tracking indices such as the FTSE 100 in the UK, and the Dow Jones and S&P 500 in the US.
Vanguard was established in 1974 by John Bogle and it made its name with tracker funds – investments that mirror the performance of a particular index or market.
As such the success of the fund is dependent upon the fortunes of the index it is tracking. If the index rises, so will the fund's value but the reverse is also true.
Advisers are hopeful that its arrival in Britain could spur-on a price war between UK-based fund managers.
The average Vanguard index fund carries an annual charge of 0.15%, substantially less than the fees on UK index funds, which can range from between 0.7% to 1%. In addition, the group's mean annual expense ratio for all of its portfolio funds is just 0.2%, a miniscule figure compared with an average of 1.5% for actively-managed funds in the UK.
And this low cost is before extra administration costs are thrown into the mix, which annual management charges figures do not usually include. In some cases these mean the total expense ratio (TER) can creep up to nearer to 2%. Vanguard's TERs tend to be quite low. Its European Stock Index Investor fund has a TER of 0.5% while its US 500 Stock Index Investor's TER is just 0.38%.
In stark contrast, the Legal & General UK 100 tracker charges 0.75% and has a TER of 0.84% according to Informed Choice. The Virgin UK Index Tracker levies a TER of 1% On the other hand, Fidelity's All-Share tracker - its MoneyBuilder UK fund charges 0.1% a year but its TER is just 0.27%.

GAIN Capital's FOREX.com Launches Gold Trading

24-hour spot gold trading added to online trading platform in response to strong investor demand
NEW YORK, Feb. 26 /PRNewswire/ -- GAIN Capital, a global provider of online foreign exchange (forex) services, today announced that its FOREX.com division is now offering spot gold trading.
"The current economic climate is generating a lot of market interest in gold," said Tim O'Sullivan, chief dealer at GAIN Capital. "Short term traders are taking advantage of the daily volatility and longer term investors are buying gold as a store of value in these troubled economic times and as a hedge against inflation expectations."
Gold climbed to an 11-month high of $1006.29/oz on February 20 before retreating back to $951.75/oz on February 25. Traders are now bracing for a continued technical showdown around the key $1000/oz level.
"Spot gold is a natural product extension to our core forex offering," added Glenn Stevens, GAIN's Chief Executive Officer. "Three of gold's most powerful drivers are market factors that forex traders already follow closely: the strength of the U.S. dollar, the price of oil, and inflation expectations."
Benefits of spot gold trading at FOREX.com:
Commission-free trading (pay only the bid/offer spread)
24-hour trading from Sunday 6 p.m. ET - Friday 5 p.m. ET
Low 2% margin requirement
Competitive dealing spreads, as low as .50 points
Small contract sizes available (1 contract = 10oz)
For more information and to register for a free practice account, visit FOREX.com.
About GAIN Capital
GAIN Capital is a market leader in the rapidly growing online foreign exchange (forex or FX) industry. Founded in 1999 by Wall Street veterans, GAIN now services clients from more than 140 countries and supports average trade volume in excess of $200 billion per month.
The company operates FOREX.com (www.forex.com) one of the largest, best-known brands in the retail forex industry. FOREX.com services individual investors of all experience levels with a full-service trading platform, advanced tools and research, and extensive education and training. In addition, GAIN Capital provides execution, clearing, custody, and technology products and services, supporting over 50 correspondent and white label arrangements with broker/dealers, Futures Commission Merchants (FCMs) and other financial services firms around the globe.
With offices in New York City, Bedminster, New Jersey and London, GAIN Capital and its affiliates are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in the US and the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in the United Kingdom. Spot Gold contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act.

Nepal Economy undergoing through severe crisis: Senior Economists

Nepal’s senior economists have opined that the national economy is already in a severe crisis.
“The crisis is mainly due to the government’s unwanted interventionist policies adopted of late in each and every sector of the country’s economy which has contributed in the retardation of the economic growth rate and thus put the entire country into a severe economic crisis”, is how the economists observe the present economic scenario.
One of the internationally acclaimed senior economists of Nepal, Professor Dr. Madan Kumar Dahal says, “If the government fails in building an investment friendly environment, the country’s economy may soon collapse”.
Dr. Dahal was the Head of the Department of Economics at the Tribhuwan University until recently. Currently he is the Head of the Nepal Economic Association-NEA.
According to Professor Dahal, “the government which has adapted to a free market economy must and should not acquire an interventionist line but instead act as a facilitator only”.
"The private sector is the prime vehicle for economic development which is considered as universally acepted principle", continued Professor Dahal.
Opines Dr. Dahal, “ at a time when the government should have encouraged the private sector for the growth of the Nepali economy as is the practice worldwide, the government is seen to have intervened into each and every domain of the economy which bodes ill for the nation”.
“This must not happen for the healthy growth of the national economy”, continued Dahal.
“Such interventionist policies must be abandoned by the government at the earliest”, Professor Dahal adds further.
Dr. Dahal predicts that the government’s target of bagging 7% growth rate in the country’s economy is nothing but a paranoid affair.
The export has declined which means that it will have an adverse impact on the foreign currency reserve, reveals Dr. Dahal.
Since the Nepali workers living abroad are losing their jobs in quick succession which, says professor Dahal, will pose a direct threat to the regular inflow of remittance in the country.
Yet another economist, Dr. Chiranjibi Nepal emphatically said that the country’s economy was undergoing through a very difficult and challenging period.
Dr. Nepal is of the view that the government should immediately check the mushroom opening of Banks and Financial Institutions.
Dr. Nepal sees the need for the establishment of what he calls, “Credit Rating Agency” in the absence of which the lay men fear that their investment may go to the dogs any time.
The Chief Executive officer of the Nepal bank Limited, Mr. Binod Atreya opined that the financial institutions should be village centered.
“The Banks and the financial institutions must not be Kathmandu centric but instead they should concentrate their financial transactions in the villages and serve the people”, added Mr. Atreya.
“Go to the villages and serve the people living there”, opines the chief executive officer of the Nepal bank Limited.
The Chairman of the Muktinath Development Bank, Mr. Bharat Raj Dhakal said that a sort of financial anarchy could be noticed at the moment in Nepal which is due to the unchecked/unregulated mushrooming opening of the financial institutions under the cover of open economic policy.
The senior economists made their views known yesterday February 25, 2009, at an interaction program organised by Mirmirey Media Club in Kathmandu.

South Asia urged to push lenders for payment relief

South Asia should push international lenders for a year's halt on payments and create a network of currency swaps to help weather the global crisis, Sri Lanka's president told a regional bloc on Friday.
President Mahinda Rajapaksa, who chairs the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), also urged a meeting of its foreign ministers to boost efforts to counter terrorism in a region beset by unrest and poverty.
"The instability caused by this crisis can be considered quite similar to the threat caused by terrorism to our societies and our region," he said.
SAARC represents roughly a fifth of the world's population, but has rarely risen above squabbles over a free trade agreement and has been hobbled by regional rivalries, particularly those between India and Pakistan.
Neither nation sent their foreign ministers to the two-day meeting. Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Afghanistan, Bhutan, the Maldives and Nepal round out the rest of the group formed 23 years ago to boost economic cooperation.
Rajapaksa said the bloc should push multilateral and interational lenders for standstill arrangements on debts for at least a year "so that developmental initiatives ... will not have to be abruptly stopped".
"Such arrangements could also be flexible enough so that at the end of one year, these could be reviewed and extended if the global financial crisis would still exist," Rajapaksa said.
That issue is close to home for the Indian Ocean island nation, which saw its rupee currency hit an all-time low on Friday amid low foreign exchange reserves that prompted Fitch to cut its outlook to negative. [ID:nHKG210950]
To help bolster reserves, Sri Lanka has already entered into a currency swap deal worth $200 million with one country it will not name, and the central bank says it is in advanced discussions with two other nations.
Rajapaksa said a similar regional iniative would be a tonic to soothe the trickle-down effects of the crisis, as the ASEAN bloc has successfully implemented.
"I am reminded of the success in our adjacent region, East Asia, which during the East Asian financial crisis, created a network of bilateral swap arrangements and has now created a reserve fund to address liquidity problems," Rajapaksa said.
Full economic cooperation has long eluded SAARC, despite signing a free trade deal in 2006 that has yet to show any real benefits.
Intra-SAARC trade is just over 5 percent of South Asia's total trade, compared to 26 percent seen among ASEAN countries and 55 percent among EU members.
Sri Lanka is halfway through its one-year chairmanship, after an August summit in Colombo at which leaders signed a pact to combat terrorism and to create a food bank to fight hunger amid then-rising food prices.